On a blistering, hot, September afternoon in Coleman, Texas, a family is sitting comfortably on the porch, playing a game of checkers, until the father suggests they take a trip to Abilene (53 miles away) for dinner. His wife says, “Sounds like a great idea.” A visiting neighbor, thinking of the long hot drive, has reservations, but thinks he might be out-of-step with the groups preferences and says, “Sounds good to me. I just hope my wife wants to go.” His wife chimes, “Of course I want to go. I haven’t been to Abilene in years.”
The drive is hot, dusty and long. The food is bad. They arrive back home four hours later, completely exhausted.
One of them says, “It was a great trip, wasn’t it.” The wife says, “Actually, I would have rather stayed home, but wanted to go along since the other three were so enthusiastic. The neighbor says, “I wasn’t thrilled to be involved in what we were doing. I only went along to keep you happy. I would have been crazy to want to go out in heat like that.” The husband then says, “I only suggested it because I thought you might be bored.”
The group sat back, puzzled that they had decided to take a trip which none of them wanted. They each would have preferred to sit comfortably on the porch playing checkers, but didn’t admit to it when the choice arose.
This folks, is the Abilene Paradox. A phenomenon, in which the limits of a particular situation seems to force a group of people to act in a way that’s the opposite of what they actually want.
Jumping onto a boat. It’s the middle of July, a bit of a southwest breeze is coming on, the suns beginning to take hold and you’re running down the first string. Taking a look around, you see 20 – 30 – maybe even 40 boats hauling to the horizon. Looking across the water there’s hundreds, thousands of buoys stretching as far as you can see. You wonder how in the hell you’re even going to catch a lobster, let alone set back without a tangle. Trap reduction? I guess maybe! How’d we ever get ourselves into this mess? Frustration sets in. Thinking back to 1996, you remember DMR’s sales job on decreasing effort, “Cut back to 800 and all your problems will be solved!” It sure ain’t lookin’ that way today!
You recall a survey sent out by the Lobster Advisory Council last Spring, thinking, “I should have sent the darned thing in”, we’ve gotta draw a line in the sand somewhere, stop putting more traps overboard. The catch is fallin’ off, hard times are comin on. The squawking on the VHF only confirms your worst thoughts, “Too many damned traps in the water.” We’ve got to cut back, freeze licenses, the pieces of the pie are cut up too thin and expenses are taking one heck of chunk off the bottom-line. Something needs to be done and right quick!
Well Boys, I’ll tell ya, 2,381 license holders (35% of 6,832) returned their questionnaires to the Lobster Advisory Council (LAC) and 56% felt the same way you did, “Reduce the number of traps in my area.” There, By gawd! You didn’t even have to send in your survey, saving 42 cents, spending 20 minutes answering 10 questions and a trip out to the mailbox. Only problem, 4,451 of the guys didn’t get heard, that’s 65% of our group on the road to Abilene. And…that’s not all gentlemen. Despite the general consensus a 25% reduction could be tolerated, bringing us down to 600, at the Fisherman’s Forum, the LAC announced it intended to introduce legislation in 2010, reducing traps by 50% in a 3-Tiered License System.
What’s that? You think the food was bad in Abilene, get a hold of this and keep your 1040′s handy. As presented, a 3-Tiered System will have it’s foundation based upon either income and/or catch. In other words, if you’re a highliner earning pretty good money, you’ll only be cut back to 400 traps. The middle-income bracket is looking at a cut back to 200 traps. Part-timers, dubs and the older guys who have been fishing all their lives, hauling a 100 or so a day, will see a reduction to 75 traps. Welcome to Abilene!
The speaker and also Chair of the LAC, indicated the Bill will be drafted next year and submitted to the Legislature in 2011. Should it pass, 2012 is the year of implementation. So, there’s plenty of time to change course, that is, if you figure it’s worth the trouble. Of course, we could all go to Abilene and wonder why the hell we ended up there. Your choice. This time, there’s no turning back.
To read the results of the Survey go to http://www.maine.gov/dmr/council/LobsterAdvisoryCouncil/index.htm
Tags: Lobster Industry